Social networks and media outlets have been spreading rumors on
Fidel Castro's alleged death the past few weeks.. The speculations started in
early August after an
infected virus-email depicted the Cuban leader lying in a coffin. The fact that Castro has not appeared in public since
the
Communist party meeting in April 2011, and that he has stopped
writing his editorials in the Cuban paper
Granma elicited further suspicions about the status of his health. According to an op-ed in the
Venezuelan paper
El Universal,
Castro's health situation is deteriorating; this could be the reason
why Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez decided not to go back to
Cuba to
continue receiving chemotherapy, and instead decided to go to Hospital
Militar Carlos Arvelo in Caracas for treatment.
The Venezuelan state-run media, however, assured everyone that Castro is alive and healthy. On September 7, the program
La Hojilla,
run on Venezuelan Television, aired an interview with a Fidel Castro
looking in good shape, putting to rest rumors about his health. "Those
who are at this moment enjoying and believing that Comandante Fidel had a
stroke, I'm sorry to inform you that he is alive and kicking," said
Mario Silva, the program's host. In the interview, Castro joked about
the rumors about his death: "They've killed me off any number of times,"
he said. "The guys who make these predictions make me laugh, as if for
me death would be bad news."
Future Scenarios
After the
revolutions in the Arab world, some opinion makers have
wondered whether Cuba could be also hit by a
spontaneous uprising
against the regime, in which the economic crisis might deepen, despite
policies of liberalization.
The
Spanish political magazine
Atenea argued
that after the death of the Comandante, a possible scenario for Cuba
could be the continuation of market liberalization's reforms while at
the same time trying to keep alive the ideology of Catroism. Last April
2011, during the 6th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party,
Raul Castro
took further steps towards
economic reform and
political liberalization.
Reuters reports that Castro's brother "in public statements… has
accused government cadres of laziness,
corruption, neglect and
ideological rigidity and has repeatedly urged them to reject old
revolutionary
dogma and embrace new ways of thinking."
The
death of a charismatic leader such as Fidel Castro, along with
the pursuit of
economic liberalization, could, however, lead to the
disappearance of
Castroism, and with it, the
dictatorial regime -- but
not without a price to pay. Raul Castro lacks charisma, historical
legitimacy and the needed consensus among the government's elite. This
is why the after-Fidel time could be characterized by a power vacuum and
instability, followed by uprisings and infighting. If such a situation
emerged, there is a risk that Cuba could become a failed state if the
international community would not help its transition. Of course, that
would totally depend on who did the helping. A failed state in Cuba
would be am extremely dangerous scenario: drug cartels could take
advantage of the instability on such a strategically-situated island.
According to
Atenea, a possible political scenario for the
post-Castro-era in Cuba would be a negotiated transition. If Raul Castro
will not manage to continue his rule on the island, the Cuban economic
and military elite – pressured by the
socio-economic crisis – could be
willing to share power-quotas with other sector of the society.
Following the example of
South Africa, where a negotiated transition was
led by
Nelson Mandela,
Atenea suggests that a
Cuban dissident
could be the means of democratizing the country. Again, the success of
that, for Cuba and for the world, would depend on which
dissident.
The path thorough democratization will not be easy for Cuba, a
country for five decades under the grip of a
dictatorship. Unless the
Cuban people suddenly start an uprising against the regime, however, the
Castro brothers have no intention of giving up power. As Venezuelan
president Hugo Chavez said, Fidel Castro is more alive than ever, and
willing to continue the fight against "
Imperialism." Any popular revolt
would be instantly repressed by the powerful
Cuban Revolutionary Armed
Forces, who now control
60% of the economy. In order to avoid giving up
to this privileges, they will defend Castor's regime to the
death.
Economic Liberalization
The fake news about Castro's death succeeded in bringing back the
question of whether the ideology of Castroism can survive after Castro.
Many analysts argue that Catroism is doomed to disappear: the island has
no other choice but to liberalize its economy to overcome its current
economic crisis. Some cautious measure towards the openness of the
market has already taken place in Cuba under the presidency of Fidel
Castro's brother Raul. Even Fidel Castro himself admitted that the
Communist economic model failed: "The Cuban model doesn't even work for
us anymore," he confessed last September, 2010.
As pointed out by a
University of New Mexico paper by Mario Rivera,
Cuba found it necessary long ago "to put into effect market-oriented
policies," especially to address the severe economic crisis triggered by
the loss of
Soviet support after 1989 that left the country with
nothing to sustain it. However, "even the most spontaneous and forceful
change is occurring within revolutionary bounds, and… the fits and
starts of liberalization policy have simply manifested the tactical
agility of Cuban leaders. In this view, the cyclical nature of economic
policymaking in Cuba is not cause for concern so much as a corollary of
pluralism—of a plurality of intersecting and competing interests within
the confines of a
socialist civil society. The creation of mixed
enterprises, joint ventures, and other hybrid forms of commerce, and the
rise of managerial, entrepreneurial, and other social networks in the
economy, is an indication of a potential for the development of capable
institutions, both public and private, in a democratic direction," the
paper noted.
by Anna Mahjar-Barducci
Source: Hudson New York
